PENERAPAN MODEL MULTIPLE DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI FINANCIAL DISTRESS (Studi pada Sektor Industri Barang Konsumsi yang Listing di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2009-2012)

Authors

  • Retno Dewi Anggraeni

Abstract

Bankruptcy is state in which the company unable to pay its obligations to creditors at maturity and the total debt exceeds total assets owned. Attempt to avoid bankruptcies company may be performed with predict bankruptcy. One models that can be used is Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA), the model has been developed by Altman in his research to predict corporate bankruptcy. Statistical technique used is discriminant analysis using fifth variables Altman consisting of working capital to total assets, retained earning to total assets, earning before interest and tax to total assets, market value equity to book value of total debt and sales to total assets. Industry Sector Consumer Goods selected as the research object because the financial statements, there are some companies who have deficit in accumulated retained earning to be reinvested. Data used in this research is financial statements and ICMD. Results showed that simultaneous five significant independent variables used in differentiating the company in financial distress group and non financial distress group through Test F and Test Wilks' Lambda with a significance level of <0.05 and ratio RE/TA (retained earning/total assets) is an independent variable that is most dominant in distinguishing financial distress group and non financial distress group. Keywords : MDA, Discriminant Analysis, Financial DistressABSTRAK Kebangkrutan (financial distress) adalah keadaan dimana perusahaan tidak dapat membayar kewajibannya pada kreditur saat jatuh tempo dan total hutang melebihi total aktiva yang dimiliki. Upaya untuk menghindari kebangkrutan perusahaan dapat dilakukan dengan memprediksi kebangkrutan. Salah satu model yang dapat digunakan adalah Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA), model tersebut telah dikembangkan oleh Altman dalam penelitiannya untuk memprediksi kebangkrutan perusahaan. Teknik statistik yang digunakan adalah analisis diskriminan menggunakan kelima variabel Altman yang terdiri dari working capital to total assets, retained earning to total assets, earning before interest and tax to total assets, market value equity to book value of total debt dan sales to total assets. Sektor Industri Barang Konsumsi dipilih sebagai objek penelitian karena berdasarkan laporan keuangan terdapat beberapa perusahaan yang mengalami saldo (defisit) dalam mengakumulasikan laba ditahan untuk diinvestasikan kembali. Data yang digunakan berupa laporan keuangan dan ICMD. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa secara simultan kelima variabel independen yang digunakan signifikan dalam membedakan perusahaan pada kelompok financial distress dan kelompok non financial distress melalui Uji F dan Uji Wilks’ Lambda dengan tingkat signifikasi < 0,05 dan rasio RE/TA (laba ditahan/total aktiva) merupakan variabel independen yang paling dominan dalam membedakan kelompok financial distress dan kelompok non financial distress. Kata Kunci : MDA, Analisis Diskriminan, Financial Distress

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Published

2014-03-19

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